By Daniel NeibergallPublished August 17, 2018 10:01:56The Vancouver housing markets housing boom has hit a speed bump as prices continue to decline.
That could change this summer when the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) will release its annual benchmarking report for the Vancouver market.
The CMA is a government agency that analyzes the state of the Vancouver real estate market and releases a report each year.
In its first report for 2018, the CMA estimated that the Vancouver area’s market would be worth $7,000 per person by the end of 2019, down from the $9,500 average price forecasted by the CBA earlier this year.
That’s down from $8,500 projected in its most recent report, released in February.
“That’s not a good number,” said John Gorman, president of the Real Estate Council of Greater Vancouver.
The CMHC, which represents the Vancouver Board of Trade, predicts that the area will lose a third of its value by 2021.
That would leave Vancouver’s median home worth $842,900, down $100,000 from its mid-2016 value.
The real estate industry, meanwhile, has begun to see a rebound.
In March, the Vancouver Real Estate Board announced that sales in the area surged by 30 per cent year-over-year.
The B.C. Real Estate Association (BCREA) said the market was up 20 per cent from the year before.
Meanwhile, Vancouver’s housing market has been booming over the past two years.
In the first quarter of 2018, average sales were up more than 60 per cent over the same period a year earlier.
And in the first two months of 2019 alone, the city has sold 1.6 million homes, up from 1.2 million in the same time period a decade ago.
The B.N.S.U. says that since the last report, home prices have jumped 40 per cent, while prices in the Vancouver condo market have soared 60 per, compared with the last two quarters.
And it predicts that prices will rise another 40 per per cent by 2020.
The CMHA is still predicting a sharp correction for Vancouver in 2019.
“We are going to have a major correction,” said Gorman.
“The CMHCA is predicting a correction that will be much greater than the 10 per cent increase that was forecast in our most recent outlook.”
The BCA predicts that Vancouver will be worth less than $1 million per capita by 2035.
But the B.A.T. says the housing market is now in an “overvalued” phase, with prices at a record low.
“There is no doubt that Vancouver is in a very healthy housing market,” said Mark Pritchard, president and CEO of the BCA.
“We’ve seen a lot of good things in terms of homebuyers.
We’ve seen an expansion in supply, and the trend is moving in the right direction.
We just need a little bit of luck.”